Our Oscars Preview - Writing, Directing, and Casting [2026]

It's Oscars Week '26! With these preview articles, we're trying to pin point winners so that you do well in your Oscars prediction pool (a shameless plug for ours)... BUT we're also trying to read the tea leaves and give you concrete reasons for WHY you should make certain selections or steer clear of others. Maybe this our year to nail our predictions... Here is Part 3 of our preview.

Train Dreams [2025]

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees

• Bugonia – Will Tracy; based on the film Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan (+2800)
• Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley (+2800)
• Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O'Farrell (+1000)
• One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon (-1000)
• Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson (+1600)

Predictions

Hopster: Oftentimes, Best Adapted and Best Original Screenplay can serve as bellwethers in trying to predict some of the other big ticket categories. These usually get announced earlier on during the Oscars telecast and can sometimes show which direction the wind might be blowing for Best Director or Best Picture. I'm not sure what to make of that norm this year. Like Best Original Screenplay (which we'll talk about soon), the frontrunner in Best Adapted Screenplay is a heavy favorite and any other nominee winning here seems pretty unlikely. Safe to say, this will most likely be the first time Paul Thomas Anderson's name will be called at this year's Academy Awards, a win that will also represent the first time his name has ever been called at any Academy Awards. Yes, this would be his first win, a topic we've talked about before. Anderson has now been nominated for 14 Academy Awards, his films being some of the most decorated and highly regarded films of the last 30 years in Hollywood. His draught is about to end it certainly seems. Don't feel too bad for him, he has been winning basically every major filmmaking award these past few months for One Battle After Another, including Best Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America Awards which is considered the strongest precursor award for this category. Adapting Pynchon's Vineland has been a professional curiosity and an artistic odyssey of PTA's for nearly twenty years, and in the year 2025, he delivered a film that meets the current moment of America perhaps more so than any of his other films (save for maybe The Master). His adaptation is more abstract but still very much in the spirit of Pynchon's postmodern satire, though perhaps a bit more optimistic than we're used to seeing from Anderson. Whether this is his best film or screenplay is kind of besides the point. While the other nominees are absolutely worthy to be here (and may have a had a stronger case to win in a different field of nominees), this is a surefire opportunity for PTA to finally get his hands on an Oscar. And yes, I know I've said that before, but I'm serious this time.

One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon

Isaac: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon

Sentimental Value [2025]

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees

• Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow (+4500)
• It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian (+2200)
• Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (+900)
• Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (+2200)
• Sinners – Ryan Coogler (-1000)

Predictions

Isaac: While technically Ryan Coogler's Sinners didn't have the ultimate sweep, losing the Golden Globes to One Battle (which will be in Adapted so no threat here), it did win the BAFTA, Critics Choice, and WGA for Best Original Screenplay. While these as individual accolades have been a real toss up in the past, there's been a wild smattering of winners such as last year: A Real Pain won the BAFTA, The Substance won the CCA, and Anora won the WGA and then the Oscar. But, of course it can't be this easy, the WGA alone doesn't indicate Oscar success. The award has correctly predicted the Best Original Screenplay winner six out of the past ten years, which you know, sure, fine, I guess that sounds like an ok percentage. The real proof in the pudding here, however, is even though Sinners "lost" the Golden Globe, every film that has taken all three of the WGA, BAFTA, and CCA across history has won the Oscar. That's a loaded stat because it has only happened twice, once with Spotlight and once with Promising Young Woman, but I think its still solid to go off of. Therefore, I don't think this is a close race. No matter what happens on Oscar night we get at least one Coogler acceptance speech.

Sinners – Ryan Coogler

Hopster: Sinners – Ryan Coogler

Hamnet [2025]

Best Director

Nominees

• Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (+2000)
• Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (+3500)
• Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (-1500)
• Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (+4500)
• Ryan Coogler – Sinners (+800)

Predictions

Hopster: Just to recap, both Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler are (-1000) favorites to win Best Adapted- and Best Original Screenplay, respectively. With those two awards most likely going chalk, we've arrived at the Best Director conversation, which interestingly enough is considered a more lobsided race than either of the two writing categories (which are both runaways, as discussed). At the time of writing this, Anderson is a (-1500) favorite to win Best Director, which is incredibly steep given the closeness of these two films in many of this year's categories (including Best Picture). Part of that is likely attributable to the overwhelming likelihood that Anderson or Coogler DOES NOT win (do not place your money on this outcome unless you like your money to be on fire). It is notable that the Directors Guild of America awarded PTA their top prize this year, which, has been predictive of the Best Director winner 21 out of 25 times this century (including the last 5 consecutive years). On very rare occasion does the Academy look in a different direction, so it is understandable that Anderson is such a heavy favorite. This is his fourth time being nominated for Best Director, compared to Coogler's first time, so there is an "it's time" moment swirling for PTA, which is certainly contributing to the confidence in his chances of winning. One Battle has been steamrolling this awards season (Oppenheimer-esque), so it is hard to fathom he will win in other top-line categories and get passed over for Best Director (even if voters fancy a split between this and Best Picture, I think this is more or less a lock).

We do need to pause and recognize that there is another piece of historical significance to consider here: a black man has NEVER WON BEST DIRECTOR in 98 years at the Academy Awards. No that isn't a typo... and how in the actual fuck is that even possible??? If Coogler were to somehow break through and pull of a major upset in Best Director (and let me just say, whatever PTA fandom I have could easily be put on the shelf while we cheer on the possibility of Coogler winning), it would be a monumental moment, certainly one of the most iconic moments in the history of the Academy Awards. How can you say no to that?! In terms of predicting what is likely to happen, I have a hard time believing voters will pass on Anderson, regardless of how strong Sinners proves to be on Oscar night. And based on the precursors and current betting odds, this already seems more or less decided. Both Anderson and Coogler are without a doubt deserving of the win, but if we're placing our bets...

Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

Isaac: Ryan Coogler – Sinners

The Secret Agent [2025]

Best Casting

Nominees

• Hamnet – Nina Gold (+3300)
• Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti (+1600)
• One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis (+470)
• The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues (+2500)
• Sinners – Francine Maisler (-340)

Predictions

Isaac: Here we are in uncharted waters, how exciting! The Best Casting award is officially in its first year of existence which means we have absolutely 0 clue what is going to happen. Odds be damned, there's literally nothing that can point to any of these nominees as surefire winners. Sinners is presented as a frontrunner because it's garnered the most hardware for casting or ensemble based awards thus far. The Artios Award is given out by The Casting Society, which they've done so since 1985, which Francine Maisler took home. But its worth mentioning that One Battle After Another's Cassandra Kulukundis is not a member of the guild so she couldn't be nominated for the award, which skews the impact a tad. The Critics Choice for Best Casting and Ensemble also went to Sinners, and One Battle was nominated there so that must mean something, right? It's also worth noting that the SAG Best Ensemble award went to Sinners but that, contextually, might be more of an acting accolade than something awarded to the actual Casting Director. Maybe those things are intertwined in a way that its impossible to separate the two, but nevertheless, it could move the needle one way or the other. Since I can't exactly sit on a fence here I'm going to go with the film that has the most wins thus far in the realm of casting, which would net Maisler an Oscar for Sinners. On a side note, I'm really interested in just how powerful this award might be in the future, or even this year. The SAG Best Ensemble award has historically been a decent indicator for Best Picture. Since the lineup expanded in 2009 the Best Ensemble award has matched the BP winner 8 out of 16 times. Is this award going to correlate to the BP winner more than the SAG now? All five nominees here are up for the top award, will that always be the case? I don't think anyone out there has the answers so we'll all just have to sit back and figure it all out together!

Sinners – Francine Maisler

Hopster: One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis