Our Oscars Preview - The Niche Categories [2026]

It's Oscars Week '26! With these preview articles, we're trying to pin point winners so that you do well in your Oscars prediction pool (a shameless plug for ours)... BUT we're also trying to read the tea leaves and give you concrete reasons for WHY you should make certain selections or steer clear of others. Maybe this our year to nail our predictions... Here is Part 2 of our preview.

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain [2025]

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees

• Arco – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas, and Natalie Portman (+3500)
• Elio – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina, and Mary Alice Drumm (+3500)
• KPop Demon Hunters – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong (-1250)
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago, and Henri Magalon (+1100)
• Zootopia 2 – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, and Yvett Merino (+1100)

Predictions

Isaac: It's pretty wild that each of these movies probably could win in any other given year. Arco, even if it gets to be a little like E.T. on LSD, is a phenomenal film, Elio made me cry (thanks Pixar), and Zootopia 2 is so chock full of pop culture references it reminded me a lot of Shrek 2. No I'm not calling Zootopia 2 a masterpiece, but it has the same feel that'll get better with time. Alas, there is simply no stopping the absolute wagon that is KPop Demon Hunters. It's a little bit like the chicken and the egg with its capitlization of growing KPop fandom worldwide, or being the inciting event, but nevertheless the Sony Animation film is firmly cemented in the cultural zeitgeist. The songs are total earworms, the animation is brilliant, and it is entirely approachable and enjoyable for all ages. We even got Novak Djokovic doing a celebration inspired by the film after making the semifinals of the U.S. Open. I was one of those skeptical losers that didn't think they'd like the film and I was eating my words after the first 5 minutes. Not to mention the finale of "What it Sounds Like" rips and still gives me goosebumps. This just isn't a close race at all.

KPop Demon Hunters – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong

Hopster: KPop Demon Hunters – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong

The Girl Who Cried Pearls [2025]

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees

• Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens (+100)
• Forevergreen – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears (+1000)
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski (+230)
• Retirement Plan – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman (+500)
• The Three Sisters – Konstantin Bronzit (+1800)

Predictions

Hopster: After taking a year off from seeing all the Oscar-nominated shorts (not by choice, just be happenstance), I'm back! I'm ready to weigh in on all three of the Short Film categories, which in my limited experience, is a strong and seemingly competitive slate of films. And before I start, let me just say, if you're at all interested in the films (and specifically the Oscars), I cannot recommend highly enough that you seek out seeing all of these, especially if you have the chance to catch them programmed altogether consecutively at a movie theater near you. They are representative of some of the most creative exercises in filmmaking each year and are notoriously pointed, packing a strong punch in a small package.

This slate of animated short films is seemingly a three-horse race between Butterfly (the current betting favorite), The Girl Who Cried Pearls, and Retirement Plan. All three of these films are distinct in their look and feel. Butterfly is animated by way of oil painting. which tells the story of Alfred Nakache, a Jewish swimmer who competed at the Olympics before and after he survived being separated from his family at Auschwitz. Based on just the look and feel, the film is a visual achievement, like an impressionist paintining come to life. The Girl Who Cried Pearls employs the magic of stop-motion animation, which is always technically impressive and often lends itself well to telling eery stories with a certain thematic flavor. The film is about greed, empathy, and survival, which gives the audience a lot to chew on throughout and is challenging right to the very end (it's open-to-interpretation ending might win over some voters and sway others). Retirement Plan, produced by The New Yorker, is the shortest of these shorts and is also the most economical. Over the course of seven minutes, the film reminds its audience that there's no time like the present to get on and start living. Delicate but powerful and celebratory but cautionary, it's funny, moving, and profound. A wise Redditor recently said, "May retirement come fast and death come slow." Cheers to that.

Retirement Plan – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman

Isaac: Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens

Best International Feature Film

Nominees

• It Was Just an Accident (France) in Persian and Azerbaijani – directed by Jafar Panahi (+1400)
• The Secret Agent (Brazil) in Portuguese and German – directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho (+185)
• Sentimental Value (Norway) in Norwegian, Swedish, and English – directed by Joachim Trier (-210)
• Sirāt (Spain) in Spanish, French, and Arabic – directed by Oliver Laxe (+5000)
• The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) in Arabic – directed by Kaouther Ben Hania (+2800)

Predictions

Isaac: I'm sorry, but it is silly how crazy this category is! You could consider this a crop of Best Picture candidates if you really wanted to, I'm dead serious. The edge overall definitely goes to Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent as they're the only films to actually be in the Best Picture race, but It Was Just An Accident probably should've been in there over someone. Jafar Panahi creating yet another tremendous piece of art that yields him a prison sentence in Iran due to being critical of the regime is one thing, but the fact that the film is so damn good is why it belongs amongst the best of the year. I was floored by what he was able to do, and he rightfully won the Palme d'Or along with numerous Best Director awards. Now, I can understand why Sentimental Value has a slight edge in the odds as it most recently took home the BAFTA for Best Film Not in English Language, a hilariously named category to be honest. But The Secret Agent is having a complete reflection of last year's I'm Still Here vs. Emilia Pérez race. Winning the Golden Globes and Critics Choice for Best International Film, along with Wagner Moura winning the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama (Fernanda Torres won this last year as well) puts the film firmly ahead of where I'm Still Here was last year which begs the question. Is Sentimental Value really that much of a frontrunner? My bet is no. I think The Secret Agent wins, making it two in a row for Brazil, and solidifying my hunch that the Academy doesn't really like Joachim Trier. I know he finally made it into Best Director but color me not convinced!

The Secret Agent (Brazil) in Portuguese and German – directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho

Hopster: Sentimental Value (Norway) in Norwegian, Swedish, and English – directed by Joachim Trier

Jane Austen's Period Drama [2025]

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees

• Butcher's Stain – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi (+1100)
• A Friend of Dorothy – Lee Knight and James Dean (+420)
• Jane Austen's Period Drama – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder (+1400)
• The Singers – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt (+160)
• Two People Exchanging Saliva – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata (+135)

Predictions

Hopster: Like Best Animated Short Film, there is no minus betting favorite in this category, meaning it should be understood as a toss up, and in our case, exceedingly difficult to predict. The two films with the best odds that stand above the rest are Two People Exchanging Saliva and The Singers, which are practically polar opposites in terms of what they are trying to say and how they communicate their intentions. While The Singers is uplifting, redemptive, and life-affirming about the healing power of music and the importance community, Two People Exchanging Saliva is a dystopian allegory about repressed love and queerness in the face of authoritarianism. I told you these two films are truly birds of different feathers and not really on each other's corners in any way, shape, or form. If it were up to me, I'd lean Two People Exchanging Saliva, which not only has a lot to say but is a visual delight. It has the ambition of a feature film with the audacity of a short film, packed to the gills with both style and substance, which compliment one another brilliantly. Some voters might gravitate towards The Singers since it leaves you feeling better than it found you, but Two People Exchanging Saliva is the type of medicine you don't necessarily want but, in fact, need.

Two People Exchanging Saliva – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

Isaac: The Singers – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt

Best Documentary Short Film

Nominees

• All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones (-150)
• Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo (+300)
• Children No More: "Were and Are Gone" – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins (+2500)
• The Devil Is Busy – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir (+750)
• Perfectly a Strangeness – Alison McAlpine (+600)

Predictions

Hopster: Remember earlier when I advocated that anyone who is even a casual cinephile or moderately interested in the Academy Awards should seek out the short films? Well, I might have been wrong, or I might have steered those of whom like to escape and have a fun time watching movies. Let me be clearer – the Documentary Short Films are not for the faint of heart. This year's slate is particularly pulverizing but powerful.Together these five films make this the most competitive short films category of the year. I'd contend that of all the categories at this year's Oscars, this is not only one of the most stacked categories, but it likely represents a collection of films that demand your fullest attention. Perfectly a Strangeness is the closest things get to feeling a bit gladdening, a rare instance of possible category fraud in the short film categories (though I'm not interested in interrogating that further at this time). This one is introspective if not somewhat charming, thanks its delightful donkey subjects. This one is on the Criterion Channel, which speaks to its high level of craft, though it has more to infer and less to actively say, which likely hurts its chance in this category. The other four films deal with subjects of social commentary and are either politically active or at least politically motivated:All the Empty Rooms presents the untouched bedrooms of children killed in school shootings; Armed with Only a Camera focuses on the death of the renowned war photojournalist documentarian, Brent Renaud; Children No More tackles the atrocities of the war in Gaza and the Palestinian genocide; and The Devil Is Busy is a day-in-the-life of an abortion clinic in Georgia in the aftermath of overturning Roe v. Wade. If it were, up to me, I'd have a hard time choosing between all these short films. If I had to narrow down to one, I'd say All the Empty Rooms might have the best chance, which could have easily been a feature-length documentary but instead uses its brevity to maximize its potency. That said, these are all worthy in their right.

All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Isaac: All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

The Alabama Solution [2025]

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees

• The Alabama Solution – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman (+1600)
• Come See Me in the Good Light – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, and Stef Willen (+650)
• Cutting Through Rocks – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni (+6500)
• Mr Nobody Against Putin – David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber, and Alžběta Karásková (+250)
• The Perfect Neighbor – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee (-170)

Predictions

Isaac: Some really nice, and light documentary watches this year, huh? That was clear sarcasm because all of these films made me want to either curl up into a ball in a dark room or start punching a brick wall. I'll start by saying I think The Perfect Neighbor wins, and I'll follow that up by saying it is based on the most unscientific hunch I have ever had. None of these nominees have won 2 or more leading precursors which makes it a real toss up, especially between the top two, Mr. Nobody Against Putin and The Perfect Neighbor. The former most recently won the BAFTA which is probably a leading indicator at this point, but the latter took home the Critics Choice. But the Critics Choice for Best documentary is almost a death knell for Oscar hopes at this point. The award has existed for 10 years and in that timeframe 8 of the winners haven't even been nominated for an Oscar. So technically the fact that The Perfect Neighbor won the CCA and is nominated for the Oscar is already bucking the trend, but it's murky waters at best. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic but I think the editing and filming style is going to push it over the top, impressing Academy voters enough to get it across the finish line.

The Perfect Neighbor – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee

Hopster: The Perfect Neighbor – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee