Our Oscars Preview - The Technical Categories [2026]

It's Oscars Week '26! With these preview articles, we're trying to pin point winners so that you do well in your Oscars prediction pool (a shameless plug for ours)... BUT we're also trying to read the tea leaves and give you concrete reasons for WHY you should make certain selections or steer clear of others. Maybe this our year to nail our predictions...

Here is Part 1 of our preview.

KPop Demon Hunters [2025]

Best Original Song

Nominees

• "Dear Me" from Diane Warren: Relentless – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren (+2500)
• "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park (-1250)
• "I Lied to You" from Sinners – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson (+650)
• "Sweet Dreams of Joy" from Viva Verdi! – Music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike (+3500)
• "Train Dreams" from Train Dreams – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyrics by Nick Cave (+2000)

Predictions

Hopster: We need to start by at least acknowledging Diane Warren, who is perpetually the bridesmaid but never the bride at the Oscars. She has earned seventeen(!!) Academy Award nominations and received an Academy Honorary Award in 2022 – but has never won (that's what you call a statistical anomaly). She has eight straight years with a nomination, including every year we've covered the Academy Awards (I'm not kidding, check back to 2025, and 2024, and 2023, and 2022, and 2021). And even still, I'm dubious this will be her year. "I Lied to You" from Sinners is my personal pick, a song that is the centerpiece of last year's signature musical scene (lest we forget Miles Caton's otherworldly vocal performance). But, if you're trying to predict winners at a high level of accuracy and have a low-to-nonexistent risk tolerance, I would not advise you to pick anything other than "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters. Ever heard of it? If not, how have things been going for you under that rock you've clearly just emerged out from under for the first time in eight months? "Golden" may in fact be the most successful K-pop song... of all time. It spent 20 weeks at No. 1 on the global Billboard charts and became the first K-pop song to win a Grammy, topping the Billboard Hot 100 for eight weeks. Oh, and KPop Demon Hunters is Netflix's most-watched movie in its history, logging 325 million views (which is nearly 100 million more than the second-most-watched film, Red Notice, blehh). If you don't heed anything else I write all week (or ever again), just pick "Golden" to win and tune out the rest.

"Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park

Isaac: "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park

Frankenstein [2025]

Best Original Score

Nominees

• Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix (+2500)
• Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat (+2200)
• Hamnet – Max Richter (+2200)
• One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood (+1100)
• Sinners – Ludwig Göransson (-1250)

Predictions

Isaac: It feels like Ludwig Göransson was shot out of a cannon and into the pantheon of composers over the past eight to ten years. His score for Creed in 2015 was sensational, and his next collaboration with Ryan Coogler for Black Panther in 2018 saw him win his first Oscar in this category. He then got a little more experimental with the trippy Tenet score in 2020 which probably helped him push boundaries further for Oppenheimer where he won his second Oscar. Oh and he won a Grammy and an Emmy in that timeframe making him one Tony away from EGOT status at 41 years old. His score for Sinners is another transformative experience and his work is some of the best being put out right now, I expect him to be back here next year for The Odyssey as well. Gimme Ludwig taking home Oscar number three.

Sinners – Ludwig Göransson

Hopster: Sinners – Ludwig Göransson

Best Sound

Nominees

• F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta (-450)
• Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern (+3500)
• One Battle After Another – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor (+1600)
• Sinners – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker (+600)
• Sirāt – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas (+2200)

Predictions

Hopster: Vroom vroom, y'all. Here's a technical category where Sinners, One Battle, Frankenstein, three of this year's preeminent craft darlings, are all seeing the taillights of another film zoom past them. F1, which just the top prize at the Cinema Audio Society Awards, is the betting favorite for Best Sound. Since the sound categories were consolidated at the Oscars in 2020 (combining Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing) this guild has been predictive of the winner 3/5 times... so small sample size. Even still, F1 seems like an obvious place to spread the awards wealth, and a win here would certainly be deserved. As an aside, I think it's fantastic that Sirāt was nominated as well! The sound design and and mixing is incredible (reminiscent of The Zone of Interest, which won two years back), and in a world with a more even playing field, it would be more in the mix to win. Alas, buckle your seat belts and wave the checkered flag, this is F1's trophy to lose.

F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta

Isaac: F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta

Avatar: Fire and Ash [2025]

Best Costume Design

Nominees

• Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott (+2500)
• Frankenstein – Kate Hawley (-900)
• Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska (+1400)
• Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi (+2200)
• Sinners – Ruth E. Carter (+1400)

Predictions

Isaac: I can't be the only one that thinks it is at least a little funny that Avatar: Fire and Ash is in this category. Admittedly, Deborah L. Scott did physically design and create every piece which was then scanned and transformed into CGI for the characters, but, forgive me for thinking this opens a can of worms that makes no sense. If we're going to allow digital costuming to be in here then what's to stop animated wardrobes from being nominated next? Should KPop Demon Hunters been nominated for this too? What fresh hell is this!?

Gripes aside, when it comes to technical categories, it feels like it's just time for Guillermo del Toro's profound vision and detail oriented direction to swoop in with his team and collect some hardware. Yet, his films have never won a Best Costume Design Oscar. Luis Sequeira was nominated for The Shape of Water and Nightmare Alley but lost to Phantom Thread and Cruella, respectively. Now enters Kate Hawley who del Toro partnered with back on Pacific Rim and more notable 2015's Crimson Peak which was egregiously snubbed from this category. Hawley's work in Frankenstein is astonishing, immersive, and is correctly considered the front-runner at the moment and I'm not going to go against that. I think its about damn time a del Toro film gets a Costume Design Oscar and Hawley deserves it. Also worth noting though is Ruth E. Carter's awesome work on Sinners where she repurposed existing costumes, reportedly for Marvel's scrapped Blade movie, to create some fantastic looks. Another well deserved nomination for the legendary costume designer who won twice before when working with Ryan Coogler in Black Panther and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Depending on the Academy's willingness to keep the Sinners train rolling, I wouldn't be shocked to see Carter win in an upset here.

Frankenstein – Kate Hawley

Hopster: Frankenstein – Kate Hawley

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees

• Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey (-700)
• Kokuho – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu (+2800)
• Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry (+1000)
• The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein (+1400)
• The Ugly Stepsister – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg (+2500)

Predictions

Hopster: Here's something interesting – did you know that the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild has five unique categories for feature-length films at their awards show? In case you're wondering they are: Best Contemporary Make-Up, Best Contemporary Hair Styling, Best Period and/or Character Make-Up, Best Period Hair Styling and/or Character Hair Styling, and Best Special Make-Up Effects. This sub-categorization makes predicting this category both easier and more difficult. In the past seven years, the winner at the Academy Awards won at least one of the Guild's awards, so in that respect, it can be a strong indicator. Two of the three films that won are also Oscar-nominated, Frankenstein (the odds-on favorite) and Sinners; interestingly, One Battle After Another is absent here in favor of a lot of smaller, lesser-seen films (which is honestly a good thing in my opinion). Both Frankenstein and Sinners are widely nominated in the technical films, so it will likely be down to these two, making this an interesting quandry. My gut says to go with Frankenstein, which will assuredly be more competitive in these below-the-line categories than it will be in the top-line ones, like acting, directing, writing, etc. Don't you think voters might lean to recognize the amazing and easy-to-appreciate marvel of the prosthetic work that went into transforming one of the hottest dudes alive into possibly the hottest "Creature" that has ever existed? No offense to Sinners, which would certainly be a worthy winner here, but I'd lean on the belief that this is a category where, often, the MOST work is recognized, not just the best work. And sometimes, those things are on in the same. Don't worry Jacob, those midnight call times and 10-hour sits in the makeup chair were worth it.

Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey

Isaac: Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey

Best Production Design

Nominees

• Frankenstein – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau (-600)
• Hamnet – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton (+2000)
• Marty Supreme – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis (+2500)
• One Battle After Another – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino (+2200)
• Sinners – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne (+600)

Predictions

Isaac: I won't make this a long and arduous explanation. I already made my case for del Toro films to win big in technical categories, and Frankenstein is the dictionary definition of a technical movie. Let's take that to the bank and deposit it.

Frankenstein – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

Hopster: Sinners – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne

Best Cinematography

Nominees

• Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen (+2800)
• Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji (+6500)
• One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman (-200)
• Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw (+230)
• Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso (+550)

Predictions

Hopster: Let me hit you with some hard hard-hitting data: over the last 25 years, whichever film wins at the American Society of Cinematographers has gone on to win Best Cinematography at the Academy Awards only about 50% of the time. In the last decade, this has ticked up to 60%, so essentially still a coin flip. Point being, I would not put too much stock on this as a predictor when filling out my ballot. Numbers-wise, this is one of the more competitive technical categories of the year, with three films all reasonably in the mix. The longest shot of those three is probably Train Dreams, though many would argue that the way the film looks is its strongest feature. Winning here may be its best shot at an Oscar, but that is probably unlikely given the dominance of the other two favorites. Like so many other categories, this will be a showdown between One Battle After Another and Sinners. Come Oscar night, you may be able to talk yourself into two different scenarios: winning this category early on in the telecast could demonstrate strength and signal which film might have stronger support with voters, including the top-line categories; or winning this category could be a red herring and function as a consolation prize wherein voters are spreading the wealth and divvying up wins across categories. Now let me share another important data point: in its 98-year history, the Academy Awards has never awarded Best Cinematography to a woman. Yep, you read that right! In fact, prior to Arkapaw, only three women have ever been nominated!! And all three of those women have been nominated within the past ten years!!! (Rachel Morrison for Mudbound in 2018; Ari Wegner for The Power of the Dog in 2022; and Mandy Walker for Elvis in 2023). In a race this tight, I would encourage voters to make history and award Sinners. Arkapaw's work is extraordinary – the film was shot on 65mm film, using a mix of IMAX 15-perf and Ultra Panavision 70 to deliver a one-of-a-kind viewing experience with a dual-aspect-ratio look (1.43:1 and 2.76:1... yes, I am ripping this off Google but now you know). Not too dissimilar as last year when the Academy recognized Lol Crawley for shooting The Brutalist on VistaVision, but just as if not more impressive. Now let me just point out that Michael Bauman's work in One Battle is incredible, and he did just win the top prize at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards... but I still think Arkapaw inches this out.

Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw

Isaac: One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman

F1 [2025]

Best Film Editing

Nominees

• F1 – Stephen Mirrione (+240)
• Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (+2500)
• One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen (-340)
• Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté (10000)
• Sinners – Michael P. Shawver (+1600)

Predictions

Isaac: The big precursor for Film Editing is the American Cinema Editors guild's Eddie awards. Yes that's a mouthful and yes that's why they just call themselves the ACE. I should've led with that. Anyways, the guild has two top prizes for editing, split into drama and comedy, and one of the winners in those two categories goes on to win the Oscar 17 out of the past 26 years. The biggest outlier was last year where Emilia Perez and Wicked won the Eddies and Anora won the Oscar. Do I think that trend will continue this year for F1 since Sinners and One Battle After Another won the Eddies? Eh, probably not. But, I'm in the mood for some chaos and since Sinners took home the drama Eddie, I think these odds are outrageous by the way, I'm going with Michael P. Shawver to be awarded for his fantastic work.

Sinners - Michael P. Shawver

Hopster: One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen

Best Visual Effects

Nominees

• Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett (-1100)
• F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson (+1000)
• Jurassic World Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould (+3500)
• The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin (+2500)
• Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean (+1400)

Predictions

Hopster: Not going to lie, I kind of exhausted my interest in deep-diving some of the historical precedents for these categories (and let's face it, this is already a pretty long write-up). So forgive me if I give you less of a quantitative analysis and lean on a more qualitative rationale for predicting this category, which tends to be kind of all over the place anyway. This year, there is a lot overlap between the Oscar nominees and the films recognized by the Visual Effects Society, which seems like it would be helpful in trying to figure out a winner. But also, we might not need to overthink this one. Both Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water won Best Visual Effects at the Academy Awards, and in both cases, these were viewed as landmark achievements for visual filmmaking. Currently marked as a heavy favorite, Avatar: Fire and Ash looks like it will continue this trend and win yet again. For a medium that will soon be threatened (and probably held captive) by the use of and soon-to-be over-reliance on generative AI, this could sadly be something of a last-gasp for recognizing human-led motion-capture in a big studio production... which, when you think about it, is quite harrowing to say the least. In case you forgot, we're still doomed.

Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett

Isaac: Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett