Our Oscars Preview - Writing and Directing [2025]

It's Oscars Week '25! Maybe this our year to nail our predictions... Here is Part 3 of our preview.

Sing Sing [2023]

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees

• A Complete Unknown - Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks (+2000)
• Conclave - Screenplay by Peter Straughan (-1000)
• Emilia Pérez - Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi (+1000)
• Nickel Boys - Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes (+740)
• Sing Sing - Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield (+2000)

Predictions

Isaac: Cue me screaming for Dune: Part Two to be in this category. But it's fine, I'm fine, it's fine. As much as I'd love RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes to swoop in and bring home an Oscar for Nickel Boys, which very well could go home empty-handed, this is a runaway victory for Conclave. The Academy loves when the Cardinals come out in early Spring, and they also love a clearly dictated holy vape hit. Conclave winning the BAFTA and Critics Choice for Best Adapted Screenplay, and the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay has seemingly set it up for a decisive win, along with the USC Scripter Award, and while Nickel Boys won the WGA in Adapted, it doesn't appear to have moved the needle as much. In a perfect world, this award would be between Sing Sing and Nickel Boys, two of the my favorite adaptations this year and extraordinary examples of immersive storytelling.

Hopster:Conclave - Screenplay by Peter Straughan

The Brutalist [2024]

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees

• Anora - Written by Sean Baker (-250)
• The Brutalist - Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold (+1400)
• A Real Pain - Written by Jesse Eisenberg (+500)
• September 5 - Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David (+3500)
• The Substance - Written by Coralie Fargeat (+300)

Predictions

Hopster: When there isn’t a runaway Best Picture favorite at the Academy Awards, there are few key categories pundits point to that sometimes signal which direction the wind is blowing. Historically, Best Editing, Best Director, and both Best Adapted and Best Original Screenplay are categories to keep an eye on, either because they function as a first step to winning the top prize or because they are awarded as a consolation of sorts. Winning one of the two screenplay awards has been a reliable indicator when trying to predict the Best Picture category – over the last 25 years, about 75% of films that won Best Picture won a screenplay award, too. Last year was an exception to that rule, in that Oppenheimer won seven Oscars but not Best Adapted Screenplay. When that split occurs, it’s usually because Academy voters are eager to divvy up the hardware more democratically in the face of what otherwise may be a sweep – or it is a chance to award something outside of the typical Oscars purview. So, what’s going to happen this year? Personally, I’m not convinced this race is as close as the Vegas odds suggest. Anora won Best Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America Awards, against A Real Pain (also nominated by the Academy) and three other films, none of which are nominated here. In some ways, I think this group of nominees poses stiffer competition for Anora, specifically The Brutalist and The Substance. I don’t believe that awarding Best Original Screenplay recognizes the foremost strength of The Brutalist, and while a win for Coralie Fargeat would be one of the most inspired wins in this category since Jordan Peele won for Get Out back in 2018, I have a feeling Anora is too strong. A win for Sean Baker here paves the way for a potential sweep that would include Best Director and Best Picture. If Anora wins for its screenplay, it might be the first signal (aside from Best Editing) that it is the frontrunner for the marquee categories.

Isaac: The Substance - Written by Coralie Fargeat

A Complete Unknown [2024]

Best Director

Nominees

• Sean Baker - Anora (-165)
• Brady Corbet - The Brutalist (+125)
• James Mangold - A Complete Unknown (+2500)
• Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez (+2000)
• Coralie Fargeat - The Substance (+2500)

Predictions

Isaac: This Best Director lineup feels like a clash of the titans, if the titans were first time Best Director nominees and largely worked on indie films until their 2024 breakout film. Pretty niche group, huh? While Sean Baker has long been an "indie darling" of the Academy, it's clear that his film Anora is his biggest commercial success yet, winning the Palme d'Or at Cannes and seeing Baker get nominated in 4 different categories (Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, and Best Picture). Anora seemingly had all of the momentum going through Spring into Summer, being crowned the Best Picture of the year in March is a tough image to maintain, until Brady Corbet's sprawling historical drama took the festival circuit by storm starting in Venice in September. Since then, we've had an incredible back and forth battle between Baker and Corbet in the precursors. Corbet won big at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes while Baker took home the DGA, and hilariously Jon M. Chu won the Critics Choice for Wicked just to make this a little more interesting. Over the past 15 years, the precursors have had little to no spread across the nominees. The last time there was even a slightly interesting race was in 2023 when the DGA, BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice split between Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fablemans and All Quiet on the Western Front (EEAAO won the CC, DGA, and eventually the Oscar). But for most years, these 4 awards are in lockstep with one another. The DGA has had the most in common with the Oscar winner, matching almost 87% of the time over the past 15 years, while the BAFTA and Critics Choice are next highest at 73% (the Golden Globe is at a paltry 60%). So, in theory, Baker winning the DGA is a the best predictor of winning the Oscar and Jon M. Chu taking the Critics Choice helps spread the favor around, ultimately aiding Baker's chances. It's certainly gonna be a tight race and whoever wins is more than deserving, but I think Baker has regained some of his Springtime momentum and that's going to net him a Best Director Oscar for Anora.

Hopster: Brady Corbet - The Brutalist